We discussed “wild cards” in the scenario planning process and the way they can disrupt what appear to be the assumed and most likely directions and timing for trends and events.

As Stephen Bartholomeusz discusses, the wild card to projections about the longevity of the commercial “free to airs” in Australia is the nascent National Broadband Network and its potential for remediating television as IPTV services.

As the government seeks to develop its digital economy strategy, it will have to consider the relationships and interactions between the networks, the pay TV services and the looming explosion of internet protocol television (IPTV) services within a 21st century regulatory framework…………

The wild card in the development of new policy settings is the government’s contentious commitment to building a new national broadband network, regardless of cost. Conroy’s willingness to do whatever it takes to buttress the questionable economics of the NBN – including using threats to undermine Telstra’s ability to negotiate the terms on which it might cooperate with the new network – ought to be a concern for the networks.

To make any sense at all of the cost of the NBN it needs, not just a monopoly and all Telstra’s customer base, but also new applications that drive traffic volumes beyond those of the industry today. Video – and IPTV in particular, given its mass market potential – is an obvious application…………

Read the full article

However, the network-centric regulatory framework is an anachronism in an environment where digital technologies are converging to create a new era for both content and distribution. They’ve slowed the tide but the future is now racing towards them.

Stephen Bartholomeusz


remediating the internet…so it charges like a phone service

At our futures forums many have discussed the hunt that’s on to get internet content, like online news and media to pay its way. What some are calling “the second media age” is busily being constructed. The Murdoch press has recently gone public with its intentions to lead the pack here (along with admonishment of public service media that give their content away for free, like the BBC and ABC). This article from Computer World suggests there are powerful deals between search and media companies on the horizon to make user based payments for online content more ubiquitous and a standard feature.

search and micropay

and more,

other publish and pay options

the rule is you watch it on the best screen available

viewing in transition.

Do you watch TV and use the  Internet at the same time? I often do, but not when I seriously want to get absorbed in the content, like a great television drama (although I’ll often rewatch it on the net)

Nielsen says that over 50% of viewers in the US use both mediums at the same time, at least once a month now Web and TV.